Recently, benefit of international grade orgnaization praise look into credit grade of India reduce to negative BBB- , moody reduces Indian grade to Baa3, include mark general so inside the grade that orgnaization of grade of 3 big international gives India at present compares rubbish level only tall one class, and there still is the risk that drops into rubbish class in future. According to benefit praise evaluate, indian economy appears possibly this year the negative growth of 5% . India erupts at new coronal epidemic situation type increases level, announce however " solution is sealed " , visible economy has been afterwards hard. |
Epidemic situation causes huge impact to Indian economy really, but of economy low fan cannot ascribe to simply epidemic situation, it just exposed economic frangibility further. After Mo Di appeared on the stage 2014, hold high the stand that economy grows, bold and resolute undertakes reform, in capital attraction of world each district, thrust " India is made " , international society is full of to foreground of Indian economy progress expect. 6 years past, although Mo Di obtains a breakthrough in the respect such as tax system reform, but the level that Indian economy increase rate maintains 6%-7% mostly, did not compare predecessor Manmohan Xinge governmental period is higher, specific time is smaller even. The strong condition such as system of idea of the infrastructure that develops because of economy of block up India, idea, politics and weak environment did not produce essential sex to change, india still does not have the requirement that implementation economy grows quickly continuously.
Above all, bring about Indian economy to develop slow strong condition to was not changed. Good infrastructure is economy development, especially the postulate that manufacturing industry develops. Although many India government emphasized developing infrastructure in the past, but did not see great progress. The traversal speed of Indian train did not exceed 80 kilometers mostly power failure of horary; big city is common phenomenon. The freeway has 1000 kilometers left and right sides only. The Bombay of the thrust after Mo Di appears on the stage strides railroad of Da Bade high speed to Ai Ha, start working 3 years many, had not seen a rail. Although enough cheap and young able-bodied person is considered as the dominant position that Indian economy grows, but in huge young able-bodied person, the person that has gotten basic education and skill to groom is few, a lot of moment enrol the enterprise hard appropriate worker.
Next, national development strategy of India was not accomplished " economy is preferential " . Regard an economy as backward country, want to grow quickly, must remove all interference, concentrate energy and resource, put economic evolution in the firstest place, the experience that uses China is " with economy construction is a center " . For instance, india is annual now military expenditure expenditure 600 much dollars, 3% what occupy GDP about, prep above world is average the level of 2% , if " bear " fall 2% , can save 20 billion dollar, not only can build 1000 kilometers highway every year more, still can create opportunity of many obtain employment, drive economic growth, but the economic growth that these money are the country such as beautiful Russia through buying a weapon made contribution.
India often sacrifices because of politics economy. Achieve political goal with economic shift, basically be the foreign policy option of economic powerful nation, the result is used often by India however. Original, the industry that comes from China is transferred and produce can use, can build infrastructure with efficient low cost, help strength " India is made " , india invests with politics and China of safe reason limitation however. Recently, as a result of in imprint border land conflict, indian society appears again the tide of the home products in boycott, equestrian Ha Lasi pulled state government to cancel two China car to make the investment of the enterprise even especially, state-owned company cancels some India to purchase the contract of equipment from China. They are not known " politics cold " while OK also " classics is hot " , this kind is not rational practice to destroy the weak environment that India invests, allow other state enterprise also not dare bold investment India.
Finally, indian government cannot balance local interest and integral interest, short-term profit and long-term interest. Develop lopsided junior country to want to accelerate development, it is better at industry of a few keys and condition to must want to concentrate resource area, the balance is various interest. But fall in political system of India, governmental ability cannot accomplish this. It is with RCEP exemple, join RCEP to conduce to India blending in Asian industry catenary and value catenary, conduce to Asian other country be being transferred to India relative to superfluous industry, but the opposition as a result of a few financial group and local government, indian administration must exit RCEP negotiation. Open retail trade, conduce to increase Indian consumer welfare, enhance the long-term competition ability of native land retail trade, but in Indian mainland retail trade person object under, already open decision must recall again.
Indian society did not make the thought preparation that blends in world economy good. In globalization times, play oneself compares a dominant position, blend in the world, conduce to implementation economy growth, but Indian society holds guard state of mind to opening however. To introducing foreign capital, india is " be about to greet return refus " , in energetically advocate attracts foreign capital at the same time, set heavy barrier again. Indian society lacks the ideology of cooperative win-win, put in insalubrious psychology to foreign home gain, feel the foreigner took Indian petty gain, leave no stone unturned raises the tax cost of foreign capital enterprise, make foreign capital enterprise general feel in India the business is done hard. Reduce custom duty, stimulative commerce advantage is changed, conduce to India participating in international division of labor actually. India wants to protect native company with tall custom duty originally, the result is to let Indian enterprise be short of however lose international competition ability.
Want to turn latent capacity into reality, implementation economy grows quickly continuously, india needs once of thoroughly remould oneself " emancipatory thought " motion, let old Indian society realize essential sex to change. But look now, no matter be Mo Di, other still any Indian political parties and leader are afraid fulfil this history mission hard. (Author Long Xingchun is area of university of Beijing foreign language and global processing advanced academy is advanced researcher, chengdu world connects an academy to carry out a dean)